Love following everything you post here and on the site. Got a question for you on the Opponent Strength Adjustment component, if you get a second.
I'd imagine that for major conference teams (and probably low majors in the reverse direction - but who cares about them), opponent strength and date of matchup might be somewhat correlated - with most playing the weakest parts of their schedule during the non-con season. If teams do not really change over the course of the season, that's a moot point. Or if there's enough strength variation within-conference, that's also probably moot. But I think there's an argument that both of those assumptions would be incorrect.
And two related concerns: 1) The lowest Big 12 team is 141 in your rankings, how reliable would the Strength Adjustment be outside of that range? 2) All Big East teams are above 73 in your rankings (except Georgetown at 182 and DePaul at 307); are games against those two teams have disproportionately high influence on the rating?
I am not questioning your model, it just seems hard to estimate! (Maybe not if I had a statistics PhD, haha.) Is there is a simple-ish enough explanation for why these are not concerns?
Love following everything you post here and on the site. Got a question for you on the Opponent Strength Adjustment component, if you get a second.
I'd imagine that for major conference teams (and probably low majors in the reverse direction - but who cares about them), opponent strength and date of matchup might be somewhat correlated - with most playing the weakest parts of their schedule during the non-con season. If teams do not really change over the course of the season, that's a moot point. Or if there's enough strength variation within-conference, that's also probably moot. But I think there's an argument that both of those assumptions would be incorrect.
And two related concerns: 1) The lowest Big 12 team is 141 in your rankings, how reliable would the Strength Adjustment be outside of that range? 2) All Big East teams are above 73 in your rankings (except Georgetown at 182 and DePaul at 307); are games against those two teams have disproportionately high influence on the rating?
I am not questioning your model, it just seems hard to estimate! (Maybe not if I had a statistics PhD, haha.) Is there is a simple-ish enough explanation for why these are not concerns?
Ry Daw's above comment is quite probative. Would very much appreciate Evan's response when time permits.