2025 Lineup Projections and Rankings

Handing out lineup awards before the season begins, what can go wrong?

One of the newer features at EvanMiya.com is a lineup projections and grades tool that predicts the efficiency of every lineup a team uses, going forward. During the season, this model produces forward-looking predictions of how valuable a particular lineup will be, based on on-court performance, individual player skills, position and role balance, and more. You can read more about how the lineup projections work here.

I finally got around to producing preseason lineup efficiency projections and grades for a bunch of possible lineups that every team could use regularly during the season. You can find the entire list of lineups, sortable by predicted efficiency or individual statistical projections, here on the Projections / Grades section of the Lineup Metrics. The table below shows the top 50 lineups nationally, ranked by predicted efficiency margin this season:

Each lineup can also be clicked individually, bringing up a page that shows that lineup’s projections and skill grades in greater detail, compared to the rest of Division 1. Additionally, you can select just a single team to see all of their possible lineup combinations and how they are rated.

To gain some interesting talking points from these projections, I’ve picked the best lineup in every statistical category, which I will reveal below.

Best Overall: Florida

Florida’s possible starting five has the best predicted efficiency margin (including offense and defense together) of any possible lineup in the country. In the model, this lineup gets slightly penalized for how tall it is (Thomas Haugh would be playing at the 3 as a 6’9” forward), and it still ranks as the best in the country. For what it’s worth, any combination of Condon, Handlogten, and Chinyelu at the 4 and 5 spots still gives Florida the best lineup projection in the country.

Best Offensive: Purdue

Purdue has the #1 offense in the preseason at EvanMiya.com, has the best player in the country in Braden Smith, and boasts the best offensive lineup. Though this unit, featuring Liam Murphy instead of CJ Cox, is not Purdue’s best overall lineup in my projections, it has the potential to be lethal on the offensive end.

Best Defensive: Kentucky

Kentucky will start the season with an incredibly imposing defense, and it will only get scarier once Jayden Quaintance becomes healthy. The Wildcats will have a number of lineups among the nation’s best on defense, including their top defensive lineup in these projections with Lowe, Oweh, Dioubate, Quaintance, and Garrison. This same lineup with Kam Williams replacing Garrison also has a better defensive projection than any other team can match.

Best Three-Point Shooting: Purdue, Louisville

I’m including Purdue and Louisville here since both deserve a shoutout for their prolific three-point shooting. Purdue’s possible starting lineup is predicted to shoot 39% from three, while Louisville clocks in at 38%.

Best Two-Point Shooting: Creighton

This Creighton unit is predicted to shoot almost 60% from inside the arc.

Best Free Throw Shooting: Louisville

Best Assist Rate: Florida, High Point

Florida’s possible starting five, mentioned previously, has the highest predicted assist rate in the country, but I wanted to mention High Point’s lineup, which ranks 2nd nationally in this category.

Best Turnover Rate: Sacred Heart, Creighton

Sacred Heart and Creighton have the two lineups in the country with the lowest predicted turnover rate.

Best Offensive Rebounding: Baylor

Best Defensive Rebounding: Iowa

Best Steal Rate: Iowa State

Best Block Rate: San Diego State

Most Experience: Oklahoma

Tallest: Illinois, Duke

I don’t know if Illinois would play this lineup, but it sure would be fun: Kylan Boswell 6’2”, Ty Rodgers 6’6”, Andrej Stojakovic 6’7”, Tomislav Ivisic 7’1”, and Zvonimir Ivisic 7’2”.

This Duke lineup would be 2nd in average height behind only Illinois: Cayden Boozer 6’4”, Dame Sarr 6’8”, Maliq Brown 6’9”, Cameron Boozer 6’9”, and Patrick Ngongba 6’11”.

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